Zero Emission Buses

A framework for a successful transition

A massive amount of funding is about to be invested in transitioning the nation’s bus fleets to zero emissions. The critical question is how to spend this money most effectively—without creating stranded assets or waste.

There is tremendous dynamism in the zero-emission bus technology space, not to mention the evolving supply chains for both electricity and hydrogen. Vehicle capabilities and supporting infrastructure are changing rapidly, yet fleet owners are being asked to submit plans that could lock them into long-term decisions prematurely.

These decisions include:

  • When and how quickly should I transition to zero-emission buses?

  • Should I choose hydrogen or electric?

  • Should I use a pantograph or plug-in charging system?

  • Should I build an electrolyzer or truck in a hydrogen supply?

  • How can I most effectively apply for grants?

  • Can I collaborate with other fleets in my region to share infrastructure?

  • Should I convert one depot all at once or upgrade depots incrementally?

  • How will my operations be affected by the transition?

  • What standards should I set for vehicles, chargers, energy management, and telematics?

  • How much staff training will be required, and what kind?

The key question is how to make these decisions sustainably during a period when many organizations are under pressure to act quickly.

Over the past several years, transit agencies have approached this challenge in a few main ways:

  • Running vendor-driven pilot projects (for example, with zero-emission bus suppliers)

  • Developing transition plans in-house or with external consultants

  • Learning from the experiences of industry peers

  • Delaying decisions until technologies mature

Each of these approaches has merit, but as we move into the scale-up phase, the zero-emission transportation experts at BetterFleet have found that the most critical factors for success are:

  • Building a framework for managing long-term change rather than one-off plans

  • Establishing organizational alignment and recognizing that this will be an agile journey

  • Avoiding premature “lock-in” decisions to maintain flexibility

  • Capturing and leveraging valuable data at every stage of the transition

We emphasize the importance of creating a framework rather than a set of static, point-in-time plans. This means adopting a data-driven, iterative process that acknowledges how quickly technology evolves in both the battery-electric and hydrogen fuel-cell sectors—a plan can become outdated almost as soon as it’s written.

The framework has several components, which can be summarized across financial, operational, and infrastructure changes at depots, along with regional influences. We then analyze how these factors interact throughout the lifecycle of planning, implementation, and management of the transition.

 Planning phaseImplementation (pilot)Implementation (scale-up)Management
Financial frameworkGap analysis – Total cost of ownership and capital vs operationalAnalysis of RFQs against dataFinal long term decisionsMonitoring data to feed back into planning and to optimize operations
Operational – transit operations framework

Buses meeting their service assignments

Depot locations

Interlining linkages

Collective bargaining agreement implications

On-time performance vs on-route charging

Depot emulation – can buses fit within dispatch given different depot designs?

Can ‘fueling’ be sufficiently completed considering pull-out/pull-in schedules and service profile?

Managing multiple propulsion types until fleet is fully transitioned

Optimized dispatch

Optimal driver use

Operations – energy infrastructure framework

What is the right charging design

Early information from utilities around capacity

Optimization to minimize capacity requirements

Balance of distributed energy resources on-site

Refueling/charging specification  and selection and installation

Energy management alternatives

Refueling/charging specification  and selection and installation

Potentially larger upgrades

Proactive energy management vs operational limitations

Microgrid management on-site

Potential integration with dispatch systems

Regional framework

Regional energy infrastructure collaborations

Regional fleet collaborations

Agreement on supply chains

Agreement on access to shared refueling infrastructure

Potential to share energy infrastructure with third-party usersPotential to coordinate infrastructure access

At the bedrock of each step in this journey there needs to be a decision making framework based on robust data and strong analytics.

The next generation of planning framework requires a new types of data and analytics platform that should have a number of key components including:

RequirementBenefit
Enable detailed route analysisDetailed data increases accuracy and reduces costly mistakes
Looks at all fuel types (including mix fleets) and all, charging types (if it is electric)Reduce total cost ownership
Integrated into scheduling systemsIncrease accuracy reduces mistakes and lowers ongoing consulting fees
Model depot impactEnsures that unforeseen depot infrastructure costs are minimized
Model dispatch – particular once sub-fleeting is no longer an optionEnsure that costly operational errors are minimized
Interlining between depots and even between different fleet ownersMaximize opportunities for cost sharing and new revenue streams
Rapid iterations of scenarios and sensitivitiesMinimize on-going consulting costs
Single set of data across entire journeyMaximize leverage of data and iterate learnings
Tools independent of any one consulting firmMinimize rework as you go through different partners on the journey
Ensure that outputs from planning (such as charging profiles) can be operationalisedEnsure that plans can be executed to maximize savings
Make sure that data captured from telematics can feed back into planningReduce total cost of ownership through learning

This is an exciting and challenging time for many fleet owners, but many of the questions stated at the start of this article can be answered with tools that exist today, with the power being placed in the hands of the long term operators of the buses and infrastructure.

Wondering how to get started on your transition journey?
We’d love to talk to you.

Clarity and value in every step of your zero-emission fleet journey.

Get in touch with the BetterFleet team